Researchers predict impending oil crisis

he question of an oil shortage crisis, according to University researchers, is not if but when. Ben Ebenhack, chemical engineering lecturer at the University and former analyst for Unocal Corp., predicts that increasing oil production to satisfy current demand will only hasten an inevitable oil shortage crisis.

The timing of the crisis point is dramatically affected by the rate of oil consumption, explains Ebenhack; curbing consumption now can provide valuable time--thwarting the crisis until the year 2150--while continuing at the present rate sets a crisis date around 2045 or sooner.

"If we don't conserve, even if we were to be outlandish and pretend that the entire Earth was as steeped in oil as the Persian Gulf, we would reach crisis around the year 2100," says Ebenhack. "That's 50 years sooner than if we were to level off our production now--even assuming more reasonable estimates of the amount of oil in the ground. It's better to decide to conserve than to be forced to."

Ebenhack, who spent 11 years as an exploration analyst for Unocal, a major multinational energy company, notes that the Bush administration's plan to increase oil reserves by about 100 billion barrels will help keep oil flowing for the short term, but in the long term the plan "will just move the crisis a few years closer."

In addition, the administration estimates that the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve could contain 5 to 16 billion barrels of oil, but Ebenhack disagrees, noting that only about 1 in 10 attempted wells are viable.

Charting the trend of consumption since the early 1900s, Ebenhack shows that only one thing has ever had a significant impact on the nation's consumption: price. "Earth Day barely made a dent," he says. "The 20th anniversary of Earth Day had no effect. Legislation and voluntary programs don't seem to have done anything. The only time our oil production did anything but rise was in the 70s when the price convinced people to curb their consumption."

In addition to his current teaching responsibilities, Ebenhack is the president of a nonprofit company called AHEAD Energy that helps lower-income countries develop their own energy resources, such as oil wells that most companies find unprofitable.

Maintained by University Public Relations
Please send your comments and suggestions to:
Public Relations.