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If a tack is dropped on the floor, there are two possible outcomes: the tack lands on its side (point down), or the tack lands on its head (point up). The probability that a tack will land point up or point down can be determined by experimenting. So I tossed a tack 100 times and recorded the results in the table below:

Outcome	Number of times event occurs
Tack lands point up Tack lands point down	58 42

A. If you dropped my tack once, what is the probability that it would land point up? What is the probability it would land point down?

B. If you dropped my tack 500 times, how many times would you expect it to land point up?

C. Is it equally likely that the tack will land point up or point down? Explain.

D. Is it possible to determine theoretical probabilities for this situation? Why or Why not?

Assignment 3

Tell whether theoretical or experimental probability is being used and Why.

1. Kelly played darts on a board made of concentric blue, red, and yellow regions. The dart landed in the red region 7 times and in the other regions a total of 13 times. Kelly stated that on her next throw, the dart has a 35% chance of landing in the red region.

2. For 10 minutes before school each day, some students from Ms. Macafee's class recorded the types of vehicles that passed by the school. They wanted to figure out whether it was more likely for a car or a truck to pass by. After a week of observing, the students used their data to predict that a car is more likely to pass by than a truck.

3. Emma is in the fun house at the amusement park. She must choose from among three exits. At one exit, visitors get squirted with water. At another exit, visitors get sprayed with whipped cream. At a third exit, visitors must walk through mud. Emma does not know which exit is which. She decides that if she selects an exit at random, she has a 1/3 chance of getting sprayed with whipped cream.

4. Dan buys a pair of weighted number cubes at a novelty store. In 30 rolls, he gets a sum of 2 eleven times. Dan figures that if he rolls the number cubes 100 times, he will get a sum of 2 about 37 times.

5. Tina keeps a pack of 20 colored pencils in her backpack. When her science teacher asks the students to design a cover for their science projects, Tina pulls out a colored pencil without looking. She figures she has about a 5% chance of picking her favorite color, orange.

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