{"id":196162,"date":"2016-11-03T11:49:16","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T15:49:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=196162"},"modified":"2016-11-07T08:03:21","modified_gmt":"2016-11-07T13:03:21","slug":"when-campaign-ads-go-low-it-often-works","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/when-campaign-ads-go-low-it-often-works\/","title":{"rendered":"When campaign ads go low, it often works"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"embed-container\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9Ye057m9ewY\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>It was a contentious campaign, with charges of sexual misconduct, corruption, and greed.<\/p>\n<p>One candidate was labeled a criminal, the other a coward.<\/p>\n<p>Personal attacks came on a daily basis.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, the presidential election of 1800 was nasty, to use a word from this year\u2019s campaign. In the end, Thomas Jefferson defeated incumbent John Adams, and the two didn\u2019t speak for years.<\/p>\n<p>Sound familiar? It should, says Mitchell Lovett, associate professor of marketing at the Simon Business School.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNegative campaigning has been around as long as campaigning,\u201d Lovett says. \u201cIt stays around because it works.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_196192\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-196192\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-196192 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Lovettoffice-1024x681.jpg\" alt=\"Mitch Lovett with students in his office.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Lovettoffice-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Lovettoffice-630x419.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Lovettoffice-768x511.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-196192\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lovett, associate professor of marketing at the Simon Business School, meets with students Javier Vidal-Berastain (left) and Pianpian Kong in his office. (Simon Business School photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Lovett has taught courses on social media and advertising in politics, and is an expert on negative political advertising. He\u2019s found that the closest elections are usually the most negative, and that talking about the bad traits of a candidate becomes more effective the more you know about the candidate.<\/p>\n<p>People also tend to remember negative traits more than positive ones.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you tell voters two positive traits about a candidate, they tend to average those out,\u201d Lovett says. \u201cBut if you give them two negative traits, people add them together, and it makes a more lasting impression.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Recent elections, in particular, have drawn comparisons to the 1800 presidential race. That\u2019s because negativity has been on the rise in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Lovett points to data showing that, in every presidential election cycle from 2000 to 2012, campaign advertising, in aggregate, was more negative than in the previous one.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_196282\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-196282\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-196282\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativeadsincrease.jpg\" alt=\"chart shows a steady increase in the amount of negative campaigning from 1960 to 2016\" width=\"1000\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativeadsincrease.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativeadsincrease-630x282.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativeadsincrease-768x343.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-196282\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Chart based on data in Geer 2012 and Fowler and Ridout 2013.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The 2012 clash between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney was the gold standard for negativity. In that race, almost 90 percent of ads were negative, meaning that the ad mentioned the candidate\u2019s opponent. Between June 1 and Election Day, 64 percent of the ads aired were \u201cpurely negative,\u201d meaning that <em>only <\/em>the opponent\u2019s name was mentioned.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe rise in negativity is probably correlated with changes in outside funding, though that is not yet clear,\u201d says Lovett. He speculates there are most likely several factors at work, including a general increase in spending and increasingly conflict-oriented media coverage.<\/p>\n<p>One thing that is clear is that, while the 2016 presidential contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton has been strikingly contentious, the campaigns have actually run fewer negative ads in the last month than their counterparts in the 2012 presidential race. But that\u2019s in large part because they are only running about half the number of ads. Candidates are relying less on paid advertising, and more on social media, to get their messages out. Trump has nearly 13 million followers on Twitter, and Clinton has 10 million.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Tone of the Presidential Race Over Time<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_196292\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-196292\" style=\"width: 762px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-196292 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativitypercentage.jpg\" alt=\"chart shows negative TV ads going up from 2000 to 2012, but then down in 2016\" width=\"762\" height=\"503\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativitypercentage.jpg 762w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/negativitypercentage-630x416.jpg 630w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-196292\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figures are from September 16 to October 13 for each cycle. Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable. (Kantar Media\/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cTrump especially has relied on social media and engagement with media outlets to get his message out there,\u201d Lovett says. \u201cMy guess is traditional campaign managers would say he\u2019s killing himself with this strategy. He says what he thinks. That\u2019s both his appeal and his downside.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Clinton has used Trump\u2019s own words against him in television ads. \u201cOn the margin, I think they\u2019re effective,\u201d Lovett says of the ads. \u201cA lot of what Clinton says about Trump is reinforced by his own statements.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He adds that Clinton has \u201csome weak spots,\u201d and those have \u201cgotten play for people on the Republican side, too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>No matter the content of an ad, repetition is key.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople often forget the source,\u201d Lovett says, &#8220;and after many repetitions, they may start to believe the message simply because they keep hearing it.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>The Daisy ad<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"embed-container\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/embed\/DaisyAttackAdFrom1964PresidentialElection\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>The \u201cDaisy\u201d ad is perhaps the most famous negative ad in modern American politics. Created for Lyndon Johnson\u2019s 1964 presidential campaign, the black-and-white ad ran only once. Yet it has become an iconic blueprint for campaigns seeking to strike fear in voters.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson\u2019s rival, Barry Goldwater, was considered a hawk, and the ad preyed on voters\u2019 fears that he might not have the temperament to have access to the nuclear codes. The Clinton campaign has aired an ad showing a clip from this famous 1964 spot, in an effort to make the same argument about Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cNegative campaigning has been around as long as campaigning,\u201d says Simon Business School professor Mitchell Lovett. \u201cIt stays around because it works.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":672,"featured_media":196432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456],"tags":[8756,12792,18572,10406],"class_list":["post-196162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society-culture","tag-elections","tag-politics","tag-research-finding","tag-simon-business-school"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When 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