{"id":280012,"date":"2017-11-03T12:51:56","date_gmt":"2017-11-03T16:51:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=280012"},"modified":"2017-11-08T12:24:09","modified_gmt":"2017-11-08T17:24:09","slug":"times-ticking-doomsday-clock-scientists-meet-280012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/times-ticking-doomsday-clock-scientists-meet-280012\/","title":{"rendered":"Time\u2019s ticking as \u2018Doomsday Clock\u2019 scientists meet"},"content":{"rendered":"

With tensions running high amidst the continued North Korean nuclear threat, members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em> are getting ready for their annual meeting in Chicago on November 6. The group of experts on nuclear policy, climate change, and other potential global hazards, is better known as the keeper of the \u201cDoomsday Clock,\u201d the near-universally recognized minimalist representation of the likelihood of a man-made worldwide catastrophe\u2014with midnight marking the terminus, the point of imminent disaster.<\/p>\n

Back in January, the scientists moved the clock\u2019s minute hand 30 seconds closer\u2014 to 2 \u00bd minutes to midnight\u2014to signal their concern over increasing threats of nuclear weapons and climate change, as well as President Trump\u2019s pledges to impede what the scientists saw as progress on both fronts.<\/p>\n

The current setting is the clock\u2019s second closest to midnight since its introduction in 1947. (The closest the clock ever came to doomsday was in 1953<\/a> after the United States and the Soviet Union each conducted tests of the hydrogen bomb, which is far more powerful than any atomic bomb, triggering a 2-minutes-to-midnight setting.)<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, given the urgency of the Bulletin<\/em>\u2019s current clock setting, the scientists\u2019 agenda this year sounds like a laundry list of modern nightmares: from the state of nuclear weapons in the 21st century and existential cyberspace threats, to the safety of our biodefense and climate change.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce North Korea combines nukes and their delivery systems, in particular intercontinental ballistic missiles, it would have the ability to retaliate anywhere and anytime,\u201d says Hein Goemans<\/a>, a University of Rochester associate professor of political science and an expert on why nations go to war. Goemans worries that if North Korea makes a coercive threat against South Korea or Japan, \u201cit might make sense for the US to try to forestall North Korea from getting that ability.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\"a
The Doomsday Clock has moved closer and further away from metaphorical midnight at various times in American history.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

(1) 1953: The Clock\u2019s closest approach to midnight\u2014the US tests its first hydrogen bomb in November 1952, before the Soviet Union follows suit in August.<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) 1991: The Clock\u2019s furthest setting away from midnight\u2014the US and Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), followed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26.<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) 2017: The second-closest setting to midnight\u2014rise of nationalism, US President’s comments over nuclear weapons (including North Korea), the threat of a renewed arms race between the US and Russia, and the expressed disbelief in the scientific consensus over climate change by the Trump Administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

(University of Rochester illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

At the clock\u2019s inception 70 years ago, its creators\u2014Manhattan Project scientists who felt they could not remain aloof to the consequences of their own work\u2014were primarily concerned with the impending nuclear arms race between the US and the Soviet Union. But by 2007, the scientists had included possible catastrophic disruptions from climate change in their clock-setting deliberations.<\/p>\n

According to Thomas Weber,<\/a> an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at Rochester, that decision was a sound one. He agrees with the assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that climate change will likely impose \u201csevere, pervasive and irreversible impacts on humans and ecosystems\u201d over the coming century. The IPCC predicts that without additional efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the global temperature (relative to the pre-industrial era) will increase by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or more by the year 2100. And that means heat waves and heavy precipitation will become increasingly common in densely populated mid-latitude regions. \u201cThese trends are expected to undermine food security and result in widespread population displacement, particularly in developing countries,\u201d Weber cautions.<\/p>\n

From his own research in chemical oceanography, along with data from a number of recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and warming \u201care manifesting faster than previously predicted,\u201d including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect \u201ca large fraction of marine species if current trends continue unchecked.\u201d<\/p>\n

Recent findings, Weber says, also suggest that \u201cglobal sea level rise has previously been under-predicted, and might exceed 5 feet by 2100, increasing the threat of flooding for large coastal cities.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s to be done?<\/p>\n

A lot, says Weber\u2014and time is short. In order to mitigate the most severe consequences, global warming would have to be held below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). But that would require aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions\u2014a 50 percent reduction over the next few decades, according to the IPCC. \u201cRecent developments, including the US\u2019s announced withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, and a report finding that few countries will honor their emissions pledges, suggest we are not currently on track to meet this goal,\u201d says Weber.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Doomsday Clock\u2014according to its keepers \u201ca metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet\u201d\u2014keeps ticking.<\/p>\n

How high is the current risk level?<\/p>\n

\u201cWay too high,\u201d says Goemans. \u201cI know some former very high-ranking military leaders who favor a preemptive strike against North Korea before they have fully operational ICBMs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Once again, B-52 bombers have been made 24-hours operational again (after more than a decade of standing down), and three aircraft carriers are currently in, or steaming toward the region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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