{"id":322232,"date":"2018-06-04T11:27:45","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T15:27:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=322232"},"modified":"2022-04-25T21:00:15","modified_gmt":"2022-04-26T01:00:15","slug":"astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\/","title":{"rendered":"Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the face of climate change, deforestation and biodiversity loss, creating a sustainable version of civilization is one of humanity\u2019s most urgent tasks. But when confronting this immense challenge, we rarely ask what may be the most pressing question of all: How do we know if sustainability is even possible? Astronomers have inventoried a sizable share of the universe\u2019s stars, galaxies, comets, and black holes. But are planets with sustainable civilizations also something the universe contains? Or does every civilization that may have arisen in the cosmos last only a few centuries before it falls to the climate change it triggers?<\/p>\n<p>Astrophysicist Adam Frank, a professor of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pas.rochester.edu\/\">physics and astronomy<\/a> at the University of Rochester, is part of a group of researchers who have taken the first steps to answer these questions. In a new <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.liebertpub.com\/doi\/10.1089\/ast.2017.1671\">study published in the journal <em>Astrobiology<\/em><\/a><\/strong>, the group\u2014including\u00a0Frank, Jonathan Carroll-Nellenback, a senior computational scientist at Rochester, Marina Alberti of the University of Washington, and Axel Kleidon of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry\u2014addresses these questions from an \u201castrobiological\u201d perspective.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAstrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a planetary context,\u201d says Frank, who is also author of the new book <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/rochester.edu\/news\/adam-frank-light-of-the-stars\/\"><em>Light of the Stars: Alien Worlds and the Fate of the Earth<\/em><\/a><\/strong>, which draws on this study. \u201cThat includes \u2018exo-civilizations\u2019 or what we usually call aliens.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed-container\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/uoISn18qP_E\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>Frank and his colleagues point out that discussions about climate change rarely take place in this broader context\u2014one that considers the probability that this is not the first time in cosmic history that a planet and its biosphere have evolved into something like what we\u2019ve created on Earth. \u201cIf we\u2019re not the universe\u2019s first civilization,\u201d Frank says, \u201cthat means there are likely to be rules for how the fate of a young civilization like our own progresses.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As a civilization\u2019s population grows, it uses more and more of its planet\u2019s resources. By consuming the planet\u2019s resources, the civilization changes the planet\u2019s conditions. In short, civilizations and planets don\u2019t evolve separately from one another; they evolve interdependently, and the fate of our own civilization depends on how we use Earth\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/rochester.edu\/news\/adam-frank-light-of-the-stars\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-324252\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/frank-book-cover-light-stars.png\" alt=\"Adam Frank book titles LIGHT OF THE STARS\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"line-height: 1.5em; text-align: right;\"><em><a href=\"http:\/\/rochester.edu\/news\/adam-frank-light-of-the-stars\/\">Light of the Stars<\/a><\/em><br \/>\nRead more about Professor Frank\u2019s latest book and other work<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In order to illustrate how civilization-planet systems co-evolve, Frank and his collaborators developed a mathematical model to show ways in which a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together. By thinking of civilizations and planets\u2014even alien ones\u2014as a whole, researchers can better predict what might be required for the human project of civilization to survive.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe point is to recognize that driving climate change may be something generic,\u201d Frank says. \u201cThe laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy-intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet. Seeing climate change in this cosmic context may give us better insight into what\u2019s happening to us now and how to deal with it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Using their mathematical model, the researchers found four potential scenarios that might occur in a civilization-planet system:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"air\">\n<li><strong>Die-off:<\/strong> The population and the planet\u2019s state (indicated by something like its average temperature) rise very quickly. Eventually, the population peaks and then declines rapidly as the rising planetary temperature makes conditions harder to survive. A steady population level is achieved, but it\u2019s only a fraction of the peak population. \u201cImagine if 7 out of 10 people you knew died quickly,\u201d Frank says. \u201cIt&#8217;s not clear a complex technological civilization could survive that kind of change.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sustainability:<\/strong> The population and the temperature rise but eventually both come to steady values without any catastrophic effects. This scenario occurs in the models when the population recognizes it is having a negative effect on the planet and switches from using high-impact resources, such as oil, to low-impact resources, such as solar energy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Collapse without resource change:<\/strong> The population and temperature both rise rapidly until the population reaches a peak and drops precipitously. In these models civilization collapses, though it is not clear if the species itself completely dies outs.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Collapse with resource change:<\/strong> The population and the temperature rise, but the population recognizes it is causing a problem and switches from high-impact resources to low-impact resources. Things appear to level off for a while, but the response turns out to have come too late, and the population collapses anyway.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure id=\"attachment_322262\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-322262\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-322262 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622_Dieoff_Graphs_v1-630x547.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"547\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622_Dieoff_Graphs_v1-630x547.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622_Dieoff_Graphs_v1-768x666.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622_Dieoff_Graphs_v1-1024x888.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622_Dieoff_Graphs_v1.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-322262\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Four scenarios for the fate of civilizations and their planets, based on mathematical models developed by Adam Frank and his collaborators. The black line shows the trajectory of the civilization\u2019s population and the red line shows the co-evolving trajectory of the planet\u2019s state (a proxy for temperature). (University of Rochester illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cThe last scenario is the most frightening,\u201d Frank says. \u201cEven if you did the right thing, if you waited too long, you could still have your population collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The researchers created their models based in part on case studies of extinct civilizations, such as the inhabitants of Easter Island. People began colonizing the island between 400 and 700 AD and grew to a peak population of 10,000 sometime between 1200 and 1500 AD. By the 18th century, however, the inhabitants had depleted their resources and the population dropped drastically to about 2,000 people.<\/p>\n<p>The Easter Island population die-off relates to a concept called carrying capacity, or the maximum number of species an environment can support. The earth\u2019s response to civilization building is what climate change is really all about, Frank says. \u201cIf you go through really strong climate change, then your carrying capacity may drop, because, for example, large-scale agriculture might be strongly disrupted. Imagine if climate change caused rain to stop falling in the Midwest. We wouldn\u2019t be able to grow food, and our population would diminish.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Right now researchers can\u2019t definitively predict the fate of the earth. The next steps will be to use more detailed models of the ways planets might behave when a civilization consumes energy of any form to grow. In the meantime, Frank issues a sober warning.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you change the earth\u2019s climate enough, you might not be able to change it back,\u201d he says. \u201cEven if you backed off and started to use solar or other less impactful resources, it could be too late, because the planet has already been changing. These models show we can\u2019t just think about a population evolving on its own. We have to think about our planets and civilizations co-evolving.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-row highlight\">\n<div class=\"su-column su-column-size-1-4\">\n<div class=\"su-column-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-518712 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/2018-06-04_Adam_Frank_063-3-2-165.jpg\" alt=\"Portrait of Adam Frank\" width=\"165\" height=\"165\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"su-column su-column-size-3-4\">\n<div class=\"su-column-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\">\n<h4><strong>Astrophysicist Adam Frank<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>A self-described \u201cevangelist of science,\u201d Frank regularly writes<em>\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0speaks\u00a0about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change, and more.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/news\/adam-frank\/\">Explore full profile \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Does the universe contain planets with truly sustainable civilizations? Or does every civilization that may have arisen in the cosmos last only a few centuries before it falls to the climate change it triggers? Rochester astrophysicist Adam Frank and his collaborators have developed a mathematical model to illustrate how a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together, putting climate change in a cosmic context. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":912,"featured_media":322272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[116],"tags":[16792,21782,18662,29502,23252,18572],"class_list":["post-322232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sci-tech","tag-adam-frank","tag-climate-change","tag-department-of-physics-and-astronomy","tag-featured-post-side","tag-planets","tag-research-finding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new mathematical model illustrates how civilizations and planets might co-evolve, putting climate change in a cosmic context.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A new mathematical model illustrates how civilizations and planets might co-evolve, putting climate change in a cosmic context.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"News Center\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-04T15:27:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-04-26T01:00:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/2622-Aliens-FINAL_featureimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lindsey Valich\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lindsey Valich\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Lindsey Valich\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/fcd7d29a5b8e855924bf73b764dcd827\"},\"headline\":\"Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-04T15:27:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-04-26T01:00:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1159,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/astrobiology-alien-apocalypse-can-any-civilization-make-it-through-climate-change-322232\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rochester.edu\\\/newscenter\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/2622-Aliens-FINAL_featureimage.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Adam Frank\",\"climate change\",\"Department of Physics and Astronomy\",\"featured-post-side\",\"planets\",\"research finding\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Science &amp; 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