Minding the methane budget<\/strong><\/h3>\nEvery three years, an international group of climate scientists called the Global Carbon Project<\/a> <\/strong>updates what is known as the methane budget. The methane budget reflects the current state of understanding of the inputs and outputs in the global methane cycle. It was last updated in 2016.<\/p>\n\u201cThe methane budget helps us place human methane emissions in context and provides a baseline against which to assess future changes,\u201d Weber says. \u201cIn past methane budgets, the ocean has been a very uncertain term. We know the ocean naturally releases methane to the atmosphere, but we don\u2019t necessarily know how much.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the methane budget, if one term is uncertain, it adds uncertainty to all the other terms, and limits researchers\u2019 ability to predict how the global methane system might change. For that reason, coming up with a more accurate estimate of oceanic methane emissions has been an important goal of methane cycle research for many years.<\/p>\n
But, Weber says, \u201cit\u2019s not easy.\u201d Because the ocean is so vast, only small portions of it have been sampled for methane, meaning data are scarce.<\/p>\n
Turning to machine-learning models <\/strong><\/h3>\nTo overcome this limitation, Weber and Wiseman compiled all the available methane data from the ocean and fed it into machine learning models\u2014computer algorithms designed for pattern recognition. These models were able to recognize systematic patterns in the methane data, allowing the researchers to predict what the emissions are likely to be, even in regions where no direct observations have been made.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur approach allowed us to pin down the global ocean emission rate much more accurately than ever before,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
The newest version of the methane budget will be released later this year and incorporates the results from Weber\u2019s paper, giving researchers a better understanding of how methane cycles throughout the earth\u2019s system.<\/p>\n
Where are ocean methane emissions most concentrated?<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn addition to contributing to a better understanding of the global methane budget, the research yielded two other interesting findings:<\/p>\n
-First, very shallow coastal waters contribute around 50 percent of the total methane emissions from the ocean, despite making up only 5 percent of the ocean area. That\u2019s because methane can seep out of natural gas reservoirs along continental margins and can be produced biologically in anoxic (oxygen-depleted) sediments at the seafloor. In deep waters, methane is likely to be oxidized as it travels its long route from the seafloor to the atmosphere. But in shallow waters, there\u2019s a rapid route to the atmosphere and methane escapes before it is oxidized. Weber is currently collaborating with John Kessler<\/strong><\/a>, a professor of earth and environmental sciences at Rochester, to resolve the remaining uncertainties in coastal methane emissions by conducting research cruises and further developing machine learning models.<\/p>\n-Second, methane exhibits a spatial pattern very similar to that of phytoplankton abundance, which supports a controversial recent hypothesis that plankton produces methane in the surface ocean. Previously, scientists believed methane could only be produced in the anoxic conditions found at the bottom of the ocean. \u201cEvidence is gradually accumulating to overturn that paradigm, and our paper adds an important piece,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
Each natural source of methane is likely sensitive to climate change as well, and it is important for researchers to have an accurate baseline.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are a number of reasons to believe that the ocean might become a larger source of methane in the future, but unless we have a good estimate of how much it emits right now, we\u2019ll never be to identify those future changes,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nRead more<\/strong><\/h3>\n![\"heat](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/NASA-satellite-feature.jpg\")
\nUsing data science to understand global climate systems<\/strong><\/a>
\nResearchers at the University of Rochester are using data science to study global climate systems and ease our environmental impact.<\/div>\n
\u201cThe methane budget helps us place human methane emissions in context and provides a baseline against which to assess future changes,\u201d Weber says. \u201cIn past methane budgets, the ocean has been a very uncertain term. We know the ocean naturally releases methane to the atmosphere, but we don\u2019t necessarily know how much.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the methane budget, if one term is uncertain, it adds uncertainty to all the other terms, and limits researchers\u2019 ability to predict how the global methane system might change. For that reason, coming up with a more accurate estimate of oceanic methane emissions has been an important goal of methane cycle research for many years.<\/p>\n
But, Weber says, \u201cit\u2019s not easy.\u201d Because the ocean is so vast, only small portions of it have been sampled for methane, meaning data are scarce.<\/p>\n
Turning to machine-learning models <\/strong><\/h3>\nTo overcome this limitation, Weber and Wiseman compiled all the available methane data from the ocean and fed it into machine learning models\u2014computer algorithms designed for pattern recognition. These models were able to recognize systematic patterns in the methane data, allowing the researchers to predict what the emissions are likely to be, even in regions where no direct observations have been made.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur approach allowed us to pin down the global ocean emission rate much more accurately than ever before,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
The newest version of the methane budget will be released later this year and incorporates the results from Weber\u2019s paper, giving researchers a better understanding of how methane cycles throughout the earth\u2019s system.<\/p>\n
Where are ocean methane emissions most concentrated?<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn addition to contributing to a better understanding of the global methane budget, the research yielded two other interesting findings:<\/p>\n
-First, very shallow coastal waters contribute around 50 percent of the total methane emissions from the ocean, despite making up only 5 percent of the ocean area. That\u2019s because methane can seep out of natural gas reservoirs along continental margins and can be produced biologically in anoxic (oxygen-depleted) sediments at the seafloor. In deep waters, methane is likely to be oxidized as it travels its long route from the seafloor to the atmosphere. But in shallow waters, there\u2019s a rapid route to the atmosphere and methane escapes before it is oxidized. Weber is currently collaborating with John Kessler<\/strong><\/a>, a professor of earth and environmental sciences at Rochester, to resolve the remaining uncertainties in coastal methane emissions by conducting research cruises and further developing machine learning models.<\/p>\n-Second, methane exhibits a spatial pattern very similar to that of phytoplankton abundance, which supports a controversial recent hypothesis that plankton produces methane in the surface ocean. Previously, scientists believed methane could only be produced in the anoxic conditions found at the bottom of the ocean. \u201cEvidence is gradually accumulating to overturn that paradigm, and our paper adds an important piece,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
Each natural source of methane is likely sensitive to climate change as well, and it is important for researchers to have an accurate baseline.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are a number of reasons to believe that the ocean might become a larger source of methane in the future, but unless we have a good estimate of how much it emits right now, we\u2019ll never be to identify those future changes,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nRead more<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nUsing data science to understand global climate systems<\/strong><\/a>
\nResearchers at the University of Rochester are using data science to study global climate systems and ease our environmental impact.<\/div>\n
In addition to contributing to a better understanding of the global methane budget, the research yielded two other interesting findings:<\/p>\n
-First, very shallow coastal waters contribute around 50 percent of the total methane emissions from the ocean, despite making up only 5 percent of the ocean area. That\u2019s because methane can seep out of natural gas reservoirs along continental margins and can be produced biologically in anoxic (oxygen-depleted) sediments at the seafloor. In deep waters, methane is likely to be oxidized as it travels its long route from the seafloor to the atmosphere. But in shallow waters, there\u2019s a rapid route to the atmosphere and methane escapes before it is oxidized. Weber is currently collaborating with John Kessler<\/strong><\/a>, a professor of earth and environmental sciences at Rochester, to resolve the remaining uncertainties in coastal methane emissions by conducting research cruises and further developing machine learning models.<\/p>\n -Second, methane exhibits a spatial pattern very similar to that of phytoplankton abundance, which supports a controversial recent hypothesis that plankton produces methane in the surface ocean. Previously, scientists believed methane could only be produced in the anoxic conditions found at the bottom of the ocean. \u201cEvidence is gradually accumulating to overturn that paradigm, and our paper adds an important piece,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n Each natural source of methane is likely sensitive to climate change as well, and it is important for researchers to have an accurate baseline.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are a number of reasons to believe that the ocean might become a larger source of methane in the future, but unless we have a good estimate of how much it emits right now, we\u2019ll never be to identify those future changes,\u201d Weber says.<\/p>\n <\/p>\nRead more<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nUsing data science to understand global climate systems<\/strong><\/a>
\nResearchers at the University of Rochester are using data science to study global climate systems and ease our environmental impact.<\/div>\n
![\"waves](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/fea-ocean-nitrogen-cycle.jpg\")
![\"aerial](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/fea-ocean-pump.jpg\")