{"id":459792,"date":"2020-10-28T12:56:03","date_gmt":"2020-10-28T16:56:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=459792"},"modified":"2020-10-28T18:13:15","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T22:13:15","slug":"bright-line-watch-2020-election-democratic-stability-459792","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/bright-line-watch-2020-election-democratic-stability-459792\/","title":{"rendered":"Watchdog report: Experts see substantial danger to democratic stability around 2020 election"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest Bright Line Watch survey finds political scientists deeply concerned about the president\u2019s refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power after the election.<\/h2>\n
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Latest Bright Line Watch Survey<\/h2>\n

Read the latest (October 2020) Bright Line Watch survey.<\/a><\/p>\n

More about Bright Line Watch<\/h2>\n

Originally founded by the University of Rochester\u2019s Gretchen Helmke and three other political scientists\u2014Brendan Nyhan<\/a> and John Carey<\/a> of Dartmouth College, and Susan Stokes<\/a> of the University of Chicago\u2014Bright Line Watch is a nonpartisan initiative that conducts regular surveys designed to gauge the overall stability and performance of American democracy. Mitchell Sanders \u201997 (PhD), of Meliora Research<\/a>, is the group\u2019s director of research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

On the eve of the November 3 election, Bright Line Watch<\/a>\u2014the political science research project of faculty at the University of Rochester<\/a>, the University of Chicago<\/a>, and Dartmouth College<\/a>\u2014finds that experts are concerned about substantial risks to the legitimacy of the election, including potential problems in the casting and counting of votes, the Electoral College, and in the resolution of electoral disputes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, among the US public surveyed, a majority of those who support Trump\u2014as well as a plurality of those who oppose him\u2014believe voter fraud to be far more prevalent than the evidence shows.<\/p>\n

These are among the findings of the watchdog group\u2019s latest (October 2020) surveys<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s really disconcerting that the myth of voter fraud is so broadly accepted,\u201d says Gretchen Helmke<\/a>, professor of political science at Rochester and one of the founders of Bright Line Watch. \u201cThere is absolutely no systematic evidence to support any of the various claims made about widespread voter fraud, yet more than three quarters of Trump supporters continue to believe that this is a real danger, as do more than 20 percent of Trump opponents.\u201d<\/p>\n

Helmke says that this myth has long been used as a pretext for laws that suppress votes. \u201cIn the short run,\u201d she adds, \u201cit also potentially allows Trump to sow doubt and chaos about any election results that do not go his way.\u201d<\/p>\n

The group\u2019s immediate past survey<\/a>, released in August, found the health of democracy in the United States at its lowest point since Bright Line Watch began tracking its performance in 2017.<\/p>\n

As they had done before, the group fielded two separate surveys in October: one to political experts and one to a representative sample of the US population.<\/p>\n

As in previous surveys, the team asked each group to assess the quality of US democracy overall and to rate the performance on 30 distinct democratic principles. Additionally, the Bright Line Watch team asked the experts to rate the likelihood of 28 election scenarios that could produce political crises, while they polled the public about the legitimacy of different 2020 election results, their confidence that votes will be counted fairly, their beliefs about voter fraud, and their willingness to tolerate political violence.<\/p>\n

Key findings<\/strong><\/h3>\n