{"id":502372,"date":"2021-11-16T16:23:53","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T21:23:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=502372"},"modified":"2021-11-18T09:25:52","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T14:25:52","slug":"can-appearing-less-educated-help-right-leaning-candidates-win-votes-from-the-poor-502372","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/can-appearing-less-educated-help-right-leaning-candidates-win-votes-from-the-poor-502372\/","title":{"rendered":"Can appearing less educated help right-leaning candidates win votes from the poor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rochester political scientists present evidence from Brazil.<\/h2>\n

Political parties and candidates who focus on the poor tend to be found on the left of the political spectrum. Yet, right-wing parties frequently win elections in developing countries despite the fact that a vast majority of the electorate lives in poverty. Why do so many poor voters favor candidates on the right?<\/p>\n

A team of University of Rochester<\/a> political scientists explains the apparent contradiction in a recent paper<\/a> published in the American Journal of Political Science<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Anderson Frey<\/a>, an assistant professor of political science, and Zuheir Desai<\/a>, who earned his PhD from Rochester in 2020 and is now an assistant professor of political science at Madrid-based IE University\u2019s School of Global and Public Affairs<\/a>, find that right-wing parties rely successfully on so-called \u201cdescriptive representation\u201d to win elections. Descriptive representation\u2014in which candidates present themselves as sharing certain qualities with large segments of their electorates\u2014is based on the idea that a group is more likely to elect a candidate whose characteristics mirror some of the more typical experiences and outward markers of the group.<\/p>\n

In other words, candidates themselves need to appear similar. In the case of municipal elections in Brazil the candidates need to appear less wealthy, less educated, less privileged\u2014to convince a majority of prospective working- or lower-class voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cCandidates\u00a0generally\u2014on the left and right\u2014emphasize their resemblance with the targeted voting population\u2014in this case, the poor\u2014in any characteristic that might lead voters to see the candidate as one of them,\u201d explains Frey. In the case of Brazil, candidates emphasize their lack of formal education to connect to these voters.<\/p>\n

\u2018Descriptive representation\u2019 works\u2014but only when the policies match\u00a0 <\/strong><\/h3>\n

One would expect left-wing parties to jump on the idea of class-based descriptive representation. Indeed, former Brazilian president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/a> (better known as \u201cLula\u201d), a union leader during the 1970s who served as the nation\u2019s president from 2003 to 2010, often points to his lack of education to emphasize his ability to succeed as a politician.<\/p>\n

Yet, the Rochester political scientists uncover an empirical pattern in Brazil\u2019s municipal elections that defies this conventional wisdom: it is the political right <\/em>that really capitalizes on descriptive representation in the poorest areas, not the left.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo credibly shift its position, the right-wing party nominates candidates who are descriptively closer to the poor,\u201d says Frey.<\/p>\n

\n

About Anderson Frey<\/h3>\n

\"Anderson<\/p>\n

Anderson Frey<\/a> has been looking in a series of recent articles<\/a> at the effects of policies to alleviate poverty in local Brazilian politics with a focus on patronage, vote buying, and clientelism. Frey\u2019s broader research interests lie in empirical political economy and research methodology regarding democracies in developing countries. (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Frey and Desai develop a theory of candidate selection and policy choice and test it by examining Brazilian municipal elections from 2004 to 2016. They discover that candidates on the right are successful in poorer regions only when they can match the pro-poor policies espoused by candidates on the left and manage to appear cut from the same cloth as their prospective voters in high-poverty areas.<\/p>\n

For example, the team finds that right-wing mayors in Brazil can afford to spend less on the poor than left-wing mayors in better-off municipalities. But in high-poverty municipalities, the right not only has to match the left’s policies, it also nominates less educated candidates.<\/p>\n

Why not go for \u2018the real McCoy?\u2019 <\/strong><\/h3>\n

What then prevents parties on the right from simply nominating candidates with more genuine connections to the broad\u2014and less privileged\u2014populace?<\/p>\n

First, candidate selection does not happen in a vacuum and depends on the available pool. In Brazil, as in most democracies around the world, the candidate pool doesn\u2019t really reflect the population. For example, while more than 60 percent of Brazilian voters did not graduate from high school, fewer than 20 percent of Brazilian mayoral candidates did not. This pattern has been well-established in even richer democracies, such as Sweden.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople with higher human capital, such as higher levels of education, are simply more likely to choose to go into politics,\u201d says Desai. \u201cAt a basic level, it\u2019s more costly for political parties to nominate candidates who are less educated and look more like the poor simply because it\u2019s too hard to find them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second, there are a few aspects of policy and mayors\u2019 electoral performance where parties and voters prefer candidates with so-called \u201chigher human capital.\u201d Desai and Frey find suggestive evidence that those municipalities that are governed by less educated mayors receive fewer resources from the federal government to invest in infrastructure projects, including hospitals and schools. What is more, these municipalities have lower school enrollment rates and show fewer doctors\u2019 visits.<\/p>\n

These candidates are also not as adept at attracting votes for their parties in subsequent federal elections: \u201cVoters could punish parties for nominating less educated candidates because of their worse administrative performance, despite a favorable redistributive policy position towards the poor,\u201d says Desai.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why parties may be wary of nominating less educated candidates. \u201cWhile this strategy may win them this election,\u201d Desai says, \u201cthe parties might have to sacrifice too much in the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n

Do the findings translate to the US and elsewhere?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Right-wing municipal candidates in Brazil won because they employed descriptive representation matched by pro-poor policies. Yet, Frey and Desai caution that they can\u2019t speak to whether the same evidence-based causal relationship exists for\u2014say the 2016 general US general election. Frey, however, observes that despite his elite background, former President Trump was able to connect with working-class voters by emphasizing his position as a \u201cWashington outsider\u201d and by \u201cspeaking their language,\u201d<\/a> adding that President Biden also appeals to his working-class roots<\/a> in an attempt to win over those same voters.<\/p>\n

The same is true for Viktor Orb\u00e1n,<\/a> the right-wing leader of Hungary, who has been this European country\u2019s Prime Minister since 2010, and prior from 1998 to 2002. According to Frey, Orb\u00e1n demonstrates precisely the behavior they study\u2014describing himself publicly as a \u201cvillage boy,\u201d with an \u201cuncultured\u201d background<\/a>. \u201cOrb\u00e1n is trying to identify himself with his targeted voters in order to signal that he\u2019ll implement their desired policies, even though he is none of those things anymore,\u201d says Frey. Yet, in order to know if those observations really confirm a true empirical pattern, researchers would need to establish the same causal connection that Frey and Desai found in Brazil. Until then, all we know is that more research is needed, cautions the Rochester team.<\/p>\n

The data, procedures, and analyses for the team\u2019s article are available here<\/a> on the\u00a0American Journal of Political Science<\/em>\u00a0Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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