{"id":511112,"date":"2022-02-16T14:55:34","date_gmt":"2022-02-16T19:55:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=511112"},"modified":"2024-02-18T12:10:26","modified_gmt":"2024-02-18T17:10:26","slug":"will-russia-invade-ukraine-511112","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/will-russia-invade-ukraine-511112\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Russia invade Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rochester\u2019s Russia expert Randall Stone explains why an invasion would be a \u2018terrible miscalculation.\u2019<\/h2>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s recent belligerent behavior toward neighboring Ukraine has already caused NATO allies to close ranks and work in much greater unity, says Randall Stone<\/a>, a political science professor and the chair of the Department of Political Science<\/a> at the University of Rochester<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Randall
\u201cPutin calculated that if he bluffed, the West would fold. Now he is stuck with a bet that he cannot cover, and he has to decide whether to cut his losses or escalate,\u201d Stone says. (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Now, Putin \u201chas created a trap for himself and is ending up in a weaker position,\u201d according to Stone, who is also the director of the University\u2019s Skalny Center for Polish and Central European Studies<\/a>. An expert on Russia and US-Russian relations, Stone notes that the current situation \u201cfeels like back to the future,\u201d 31 years after Ukraine gained independence from the former Soviet Union and when \u201cwe thought we had moved past this stage.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a recent public lecture on the River Campus, Stone argued that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would ultimately militarize NATO and render Russia less secure.<\/p>\n

Putin has often been characterized as a clever manipulator. \u201cBut one has to ask\u2014why is he making so many mistakes?\u201d says Stone, pointing to Putin\u2019s failed attempt to poison and kill the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, which led to widespread protests in Russia and turned Navalny \u201cinto a martyr and cause c\u00e9l\u00e8bre.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps,\u201d Stone adds, \u201cwhat we\u2019re witnessing here is that Putin miscalculated. He hoped that the West would make concessions, and now he has to figure out how to extricate himself from a looming crisis\u2014does he fold or does he escalate?\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Q&A with Randall Stone<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Looking at this conflict in historical context, why do Putin’s threats of invasion seem so surprising?<\/strong><\/h4>\n