{"id":512642,"date":"2022-02-25T15:01:17","date_gmt":"2022-02-25T20:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=512642"},"modified":"2024-05-08T20:38:49","modified_gmt":"2024-05-09T00:38:49","slug":"putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/","title":{"rendered":"Why does Russia want Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Rochester expert on international conflicts explains why Ukraine\u2019s fate might be tied to Putin\u2019s survival.<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_513162\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-513162\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-513162\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/goemans-300x350-1.jpg\" alt=\"Hein Goemans.\" width=\"300\" height=\"350\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-513162\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hein Goemans.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cWhen shooting starts, things get out of hand. That\u2019s important to recognize,\u201d says <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/people\/view.php?fid=14\">Hein Goemans<\/a>, a&nbsp;professor of political science&nbsp;at the <a href=\"https:\/\/rochester.edu\/\">University of Rochester<\/a>, who is an expert on international conflicts, territorial disputes, why countries go to war, and how wars end.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI study war because war is awful; it\u2019s truly terrible.\u201d Thousands of Ukrainian civilians, and Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches, he notes, are going to die as a result of missiles and artillery fire without ever seeing any Russian soldiers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWar brings massive casualties, destruction, and costs for everybody concerned. We should not forget those people who are fighting and the costs they are willing to shoulder. Many of them will die because of Putin\u2019s folly,\u201d says Goemans, who is the author of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691049441\/war-and-punishment\"><em>War and Punishment<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;(Princeton University Press, 2000) and the coauthor of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/leaders-and-international-conflict\/2B2676A409304C47EAA8B4822EFF1217#fndtn-information\"><em>Leaders and International Conflict<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;<\/em>(Cambridge University Press, 2011).<\/p>\n<p>Goemans warns that a Russian victory\u2014but also a Russian defeat or stalemate\u2014could have dramatically bad consequences for the West, and indeed the whole world.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Q&amp;A with Hein Goemans<\/strong><\/h2>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>Why does Russia want Ukraine? <\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Putin wants to reestablish a Russian empire and at the same time prevent a democratic encirclement around Russia.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> I read his goals as twofold: he wants to reestablish directly or indirectly, by annexation or by puppet-regimes, a Russian empire\u2014be it the former USSR or Tsarist Russia. A second possible answer has to do with the role of domestic Russian politics, which the standard literature on conflict takes very seriously: Putin has seen what happened in some former Soviet successor republics and the former Yugoslavia, several of which experienced \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2013\/03\/18\/why-the-color-revolutions-failed\/\">Color Revolutions<\/a>\u201d&nbsp;and democratized. Indeed, it was a Color Revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which Putin mischaracterizes as a military coup. He wants to prevent more of these revolutions and prevent a democratic encirclement of countries around him, which could provide a safe haven for Russian dissidents who\u2019d be dangerous to Putin\u2019s political survival. Both of these goals overlap in the sense that he is seeking regime change, which is a dangerous game.&nbsp;As my colleague Alexander Downes at George Washington University has recently shown, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/02\/27\/opinions\/russia-war-regime-change-downes\/index.html\">regime change can be a \u201ccatastrophic success.\u201d<\/a> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>Why now?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Putin<\/em><em>&nbsp;perceives the West as weak but is also fighting for his own political survival.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> One answer could be that he now feels strong enough to do it while the West appears in disarray. He doesn\u2019t want an increasingly westernized country in his backyard; instead he wants puppets whom he can control to protect his own domestic political position. Of course, it\u2019s not just his political position. It\u2019s also his head if he loses power. It\u2019s virtually certain that he would be prosecuted back home and would go to jail. Very bad things could happen to him\u2014something that I think he\u2019s very well aware of.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>What about Ukraine might have set Putin off?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Ukraine represents a westernized counter example to Russia\u2019s autocratic dictatorial system.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> Ukraine is becoming more westernized, it\u2019s becoming more diverse and has a regime that he cannot control. Over time, it sets an example for others in Russia who would like to become more democratic. It provides a counter example to Russia\u2019s autocratic dictatorial system. You have these rows of dominoes, one Color Revolution after another, and at the end of the domino series is Russia. All this is dangerous for him.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><b>What are \u2018salami tactics\u2019 in international relations and how do they apply here?<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Salami tactics&nbsp;involves asking for more, slice by slice, until you have all you want.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> \u201cSalami tactics\u201d mean you ask for a little bit more and a little bit more until you have complete control\u2014in this case Russia over Ukraine. There\u2019s also an interlocking commitment problem here: Ukraine cannot promise not to join NATO in the long term, which Russia sees as a threat to its borders. At the same time, Russia can\u2019t promise credibly not to ask for more if Ukraine made some concessions now, whether it be territorial concessions, regime change, or a promise not to join NATO.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_513522\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-513522\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-513522\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-nato-allies-russia-630x454.jpg\" alt=\"Map of Europe showing NATO allies in blue, Ukraine in yellow, Russia in red, and Russia-occupied Crimea in green.\" width=\"630\" height=\"454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-nato-allies-russia-630x454.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-nato-allies-russia-768x553.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-nato-allies-russia.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-513522\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The original map posted on February 25, 2022, inaccurately included Austria as a NATO ally. A corrected map was posted on February 26, 2022. We apologize for the error. (University of Rochester illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>Is invading Ukraine a war over territory, which is your research specialty?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Maybe. But Putin is after more than just Ukraine\u2019s separatist territories.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> Some people thought initially this would be a war over territory, essentially about the two separatist areas, and that Putin wouldn\u2019t claim much more. That\u2019s evidently not the case. It could still be considered a war over territory but only in the sense that he wants to annex the entire Ukraine, which seems to me unlikely to succeed. It seems much more likely that he\u2019ll install a puppet regime instead. And the reason for that, from the theory of warfare and from a leader perspective, is that he does it to ensure his personal survival.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>What happens if Putin succeeds in Ukraine?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>It would represent a blatant transgression of international norms, diplomacy, and relations. <\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_513452\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-513452\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-513452\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/russia-soviet-satellites-450w.jpg\" alt=\"Global view of Russia and former Soviet satellite countries labeled.\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-513452\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a recent speech, Putin called the borders drawn after World Wars I and II illegitimate. \u201cIf those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point,\u201d says Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, pointing to the Soviet successor republics. (University of Rochester illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Goemans:&nbsp;<\/strong>The principles of the International Order would be destroyed. Such principles include \u201cterritorial integrity,\u201d which is something that Russia committed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclear&nbsp;weapons and became independent. Essentially, Putin is flipping the bird at the West and the rest of the world. For example, he declared a \u201cmilitary operation\u201d right at the time when the UN&nbsp;Security Council was meeting to discuss the crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Other&nbsp;countries, most prominently the Baltic states, but also other USSR successor republics, will have every reason to think they are next. If Russia is successful, the world will change and NATO will have to rearm and all countries will have to spend more on defense. There will be rounds of arming and&nbsp;rearming. In this environment, even a small mistake, a glitch, a missed phone call, a mistranslation, a malfunctioning GPS can get out of hand really quickly.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>What do you think Putin will do if he loses in Ukraine?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>If Putin doesn\u2019t achieve his goals, he may pursue extremely risky actions in the hope of staying in power.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> A loss might doom his domestic, political, and physical survival. In a very recent book, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cornellpress.cornell.edu\/book\/9781501761157\/catastrophic-success\/#bookTabs=1\"><i>Catastrophic Success<\/i><\/a>, Alexander Downes suggests that these kinds of regime changes, which Putin is pursuing, often backfire very badly. If Russia\u2019s objectives fail, Putin is really in deep trouble. As you can see today from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/02\/24\/world\/europe\/russia-protests-putin.html\">demonstrations in many Russian cities<\/a>, there is a significant and sizable component in the Russian public that\u2019s actually willing to go outside and protest against this war, which is a very risky and extremely brave course of action.<\/p>\n<p>So, if Putin doesn\u2019t achieve his goals, it becomes much more likely that he\u2019ll be overthrown. That\u2019s why he may do some very risky things\u2014which is called \u201cgambling for resurrection\u201d\u2014in the hope it\u2019ll keep him in power. I wrote about that in my first book, to explain why the First World War lasted for four years although the German leaders had already concluded in November 1914 that they couldn\u2019t win; they fought for another four years because they were afraid of domestic political punishment.<\/p>\n<p>The dangerous thing that is difficult to grasp is that the West may not be able to do anything to counter the logic of gambling for resurrection. There is talk of giving Putin an \u201coff-ramp\u201d but that completely misses the point that Putin is afraid domestic enemies might overthrow and kill him, and there\u2019s little the West can do to address those fears.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>Is this the most dangerous situation since World War II?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Yes. We are in a situation where Putin\u2019s \u201csuccess\u201d or failure in Ukraine both present dangerous situations.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Goemans:<\/strong> Yes. It\u2019s not just Putin\u2019s possible success that scares me, it\u2019s also the possibility of a big failure for Russia. So if we\u2019re in a situation where either success or failure both present horrible, dangerous situations, we\u2019d better be very careful and think very, very carefully about what we can do, and perhaps what we cannot do, and prepare accordingly. You don\u2019t want to corner Putin with sanctions to the extent that he feels that he must gamble\u2014all or nothing. The impulse, and I certainly share it, is to punish him severely. But if you punish him too severely, then you risk his doing even more dangerous things in order to protect himself personally. So it\u2019s a very difficult tightrope to walk. I\u2019m sure that the Biden administration is aware of these things. I\u2019ve been impressed with the competence shown\u2014the careful, mature attitude, the communications, the collaboration with allies.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>What else did Putin hint at in his recent, very belligerent speech?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Putin said that the borders drawn after World War I and World War II are illegitimate and had to go.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_513432\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-513432\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-513432\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/russian-tsarist-empire-pre-wwi-450w.jpg\" alt=\"Global view of Russian Tsarist empire in yellow before World War I.\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-513432\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The question, according to Goemans, is which empire Putin thinks needs reconstituting: the Russian Tsarist Empire (pictured here with its 1914 borders before the start of World War I) or the former Soviet Union?&nbsp;(University of Rochester illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Goemans:&nbsp;<\/strong>One thing he said in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/02\/23\/world\/europe\/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html\">his speech<\/a>, which is just stunning, is that nationalism cannot be the basis of a state. Everybody in academia and most of the world thinks that nationalism is the justification and the basis of a state. But his speech went further than that. He said the borders that were drawn by Lenin and by Stalin, partially as a result of the First and Second World War, are illegitimate and have to go. And if those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia\u2014all the successor republics are going to ask, \u201cAre we next?\u201d The new threats against Finland and Sweden, to warn them off from joining NATO, are also extremely concerning.<\/p>\n<p>Now, of course, in many of the successor republics Putin already has an elite, which is favorably inclined toward him. He has puppets in Kazakhstan, he has puppets in Belarus and elsewhere that he can control. Leaders in these countries depend on him, directly and indirectly, to stay in office. So it\u2019s this whole musical-chairs scenario of dictators who are all afraid of losing office. In order to prop up one, Putin has to prop up all.<\/p>\n<p>The question is, which empire does he think needs reconstituting? Is it the Soviet Union? Or is it Tsarist Russia? And if it\u2019s the latter\u2014and there are some indications in his speeches that he does mean the latter\u2014then Poland and other countries are going to be justifiably worried.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Political scientist Hein Goemans, Rochester\u2019s expert on international conflicts, explains why Ukraine\u2019s fate might be tied to Putin\u2019s survival.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":942,"featured_media":512862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456],"tags":[21462,16072,37122],"class_list":["post-512642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society-culture","tag-department-of-political-science","tag-school-of-arts-and-sciences","tag-thought-leadership"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why does Russia want Ukraine?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A University of Rochester expert on international conflicts explains some of the reasons behind Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why does Russia want Ukraine?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A University of Rochester expert on international conflicts explains some of the reasons behind Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"News Center\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-25T20:01:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-09T00:38:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fea-why-putin-invaded-ukraine.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sandra Knispel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sandra Knispel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sandra Knispel\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/#\/schema\/person\/48a5dd20d1ade85ff52a0babb9a550a5\"},\"headline\":\"Why does Russia want Ukraine?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-25T20:01:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-09T00:38:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/\"},\"wordCount\":1937,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/putin-russia-invading-ukraine-explained-512642\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fea-why-putin-invaded-ukraine.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Department of Political Science\",\"School of Arts and Sciences\",\"thought leadership\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Society &amp; 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