{"id":593362,"date":"2024-02-19T18:04:20","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T23:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=593362"},"modified":"2024-02-23T12:47:08","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T17:47:08","slug":"alexei-navalny-russian-soviet-opposition-movements-putin-593362","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/alexei-navalny-russian-soviet-opposition-movements-putin-593362\/","title":{"rendered":"Why did Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny have to die?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><b>Rochester experts discuss Putin\u2019s intense fear of critics, the history of Russian and Soviet opposition movements, and what\u2019s next for Russia\u2019s dissidents.<\/b><\/h2>\n<div class=\"side-right\">\n<h3><strong>Rochester voices<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Listen to an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wxxinews.org\/show\/connections\/2024-02-20\/discussing-the-death-of-russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-and-previewing-the-documentary-war-in-ukraine-a-view-from-inside\">episode of WXXI\u2019s <em>Connections with Evan Dawson<\/em><\/a> as Rochester experts, including Matthew Lenoe, Randall Stone, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/alexei-navaly-death-legacy-dmitry-bykov-writer-594302\/\">Scholar in Exile Dmitry Bykov<\/a>, discuss the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Many questions remain in the aftermath of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/video\/world\/alexei-navalny-russian-opposition-leader-has-died\/2024\/02\/16\/183d2bdf-ddef-4f50-8501-81e195c91680_video.html\">suspicious death<\/a> of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny. An outspoken critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the 47-year-old regime critic died on February 16 in a remote penal colony in the Arctic.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the long term, a figure like Navalny will be remembered as a martyr and inspiration by opposition movements,\u201d says <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/his\/people\/faculty\/lenoe_matthew\/index.html\">Matthew Lenoe<\/a>, an associate professor of <a href=\"http:\/\/sas.rochester.edu\/his\/\">history<\/a> at the <a href=\"https:\/\/rochester.edu\/\">University of Rochester<\/a>, who is an expert on Soviet and Russian history.<\/p>\n<p>Navalny rose to prominence exposing high-level corruption within Russia\u2019s government, garnering international attention and becoming a powerful opposition symbol, which placed him squarely in the Kremlin\u2019s crosshairs.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"apple-converted-space\">\u201c<\/span>Putin is paranoid about criticism because his regime is vulnerable and he has lost much of his former popularity,\u201d<span class=\"apple-converted-space\"> says <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/people\/view.php?fid=29\"><strong>Randall Stone<\/strong><\/a>, a <a href=\"http:\/\/sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/\">political science<\/a> professor and the director of the University\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/CPCES\/\">Skalny Center for Polish and Central European Studies<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><a href=\"#experts\">Q&amp;A with Matthew Lenoe and Randall Stone<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Why is Vladimir Putin so thin-skinned when it comes to criticism?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Criticism and opposition are dangerous for Putin. The military may not back him if large-scale protests were to sweep the country.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Stone:<\/strong> Putin is paranoid about criticism because his regime is vulnerable and he has lost much of his former popularity. A number of neighboring authoritarian leaders have succumbed to mass protests\u2014the so-called \u201ccolor revolutions.\u201d It happened in Serbia in 2000, in Georgia in 2003, in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, and it happened twice in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. Putin faced enormous popular street protests in 2010 and 2011, and there were protests all over Russia at the outset of the war with Ukraine in 2022. The governments of Belarus and Kazakhstan, Russia\u2019s two closest allies, were threatened by mass protests and only managed to repress them as a result of Russian intervention. Putin knows that he\u2019s very unpopular in the large cities of Russia. The military is unlikely to back him if a major protest movement begins.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_593932\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-593932\" style=\"width: 2000px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-593932\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017.jpg\" alt=\"Close up of a person holding a protest sign with Vladimir Putin's face on it that says &quot;He's a killer&quot; in English and Russian to illustrate opposition movements.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-630x420.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-1680x1120.jpg 1680w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-1250x833.jpg 1250w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-soviet-russian-opposition-movements-GettyImages-2016378017-660x440.jpg 660w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-593932\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alexei Navalny\u2019s death is likely to galvanize Putin\u2019s opposition,\u00a0according to University of Rochester political scientist Randall Stone. (Getty Images photo \/ Kevin Dietsch)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4><strong>Many regime critics, not just during Putin\u2019s years in office, have disappeared, been murdered, or had harsh prison sentences imposed. Has opposition always been futile in Russia, the former Soviet Union, or Tsarist Russia?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Russia has a long tradition of non-violent resistance to various authoritarian regimes, dating back to Tsarist times.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Lenoe:<\/strong> No, it wasn\u2019t always futile. Right now, opposition forces have little or no chance of replacing Putin, who remains popular and who has strong control of the security services and military. However, since the time of Tsar Alexander II, who ruled from 1855 to 1881, various political movements\u2014not all of them liberal democratic\u2014have propelled central leaders to change policy, or even to restructure society. In two cases, the collapse of the Tsarist autocracy in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, opposition coalitions overturned the regime in power.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stone:<\/strong> Russia has a long tradition of non-violent resistance to its various authoritarian regimes, dating back to Tsarist times. In the Soviet Union, famous intellectuals\u2014including the writers Mikhail Bulgakov, Boris Pasternak, and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, and the composer Dmitri Shostakovich\u2014were hounded by the KGB [the main internal security agency] because their works were critical of the regime. There was active dissemination of underground literature called samizdat in Soviet times\u2014and being caught with it meant going to prison.<\/p>\n<div class=\"pullquote\"><span style=\"font-size: 400%;\">\u201c<\/span>Putin knows that he\u2019s very unpopular in the large cities of Russia. The military is unlikely to back him if a major protest movement begins.\u201d<\/div>\n<p>Yet dissidents refused to conform under terrible pressure. Resistance to the Soviet Union always seemed futile until Mikhail Gorbachev opened up public discussion, and suddenly anything seemed possible. When the military, police, and KGB tried to put the genie back in the bottle by carrying out a coup against Gorbachev in 1991, it was non-violent protest that caused their coup to collapse. The KGB\u2019s elite troops, the Alpha battalion, refused to fire on the protesters in Moscow, and subsequently the Soviet Union disintegrated.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Is Putin rightly afraid that his regime could disintegrate like the Soviet Union did in 1991?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Russia is experiencing resistance to the war in Ukraine on a scale that has rarely been seen before in history.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Stone:<\/strong> Yes, the same could happen to Putin\u2019s regime. Russia is experiencing passive and non-violent resistance to the war in Ukraine on a scale that has rarely been seen before in history. About 200,000 Russian men fled the country instead of reporting for the draft in its first few weeks, compared to 30,000 Americans who fled to Canada to evade the draft during the entire Vietnam War.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_593982\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-593982\" style=\"width: 2000px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-593982\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857.jpg\" alt=\"Engraving Alexander II surrounded by the Moscow noblemen to begin liberation of peasantry in 1857, as a result of opposition movements.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1581\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857-630x498.jpg 630w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857-768x607.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857-1536x1214.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-opposition-movements-Tsar_Alexander_II_1857-1920x1518.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-593982\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Political opposition movements can influence leaders to change policy or restructure society. \u201cOpposition to serfdom, from both liberal dissident intellectuals and from government bureaucrats who saw it as economically inefficient, helped convince Tsar Alexander II to abolish serfdom in 1861,\u201d says historian Matthew Lenoe, (Image via <a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Tsar_Alexander_II_1857.jpg\">Wikimedia Commons<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4><strong>What are historic examples of opposition movements that have influenced Russian government policies?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><em>In the late 1980s, a loose opposition coalition pushed former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to open up society during the era of perestroika and glasnost.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Lenoe:<\/strong> Opposition to serfdom, from both liberal dissident intellectuals and from government bureaucrats who saw it as economically inefficient, helped convince Tsar Alexander II to abolish serfdom in 1861. After Stalin\u2019s death in 1953, Communist reformers defeated Stalinists in the leadership, ratcheting down the levels of terror dramatically, redirecting state investment toward improving living standards, and allowing somewhat more open discussion of Soviet history, including the Great Terror of the 1930s and World War II.<\/p>\n<p>In the second half of the 1980s, a loose coalition of Communist reformers, Russian nationalists, environmentalists, and opponents of the war in Afghanistan pushed Gorbachev toward opening up society during the era of perestroika (reform) and glasnost (openness).<\/p>\n<h4><strong>In Russian and Soviet history, does the suspicious death or outright murder of an outspoken regime critic usually silences or galvanize opposition movements?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Short term, terror intimidates and silences all but the most determined dissidents. Long term, a figure like Navalny will be remembered as a martyr and an inspiration.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Lenoe:<\/strong> In the short run, in Russia at least, terror does intimidate the opposition and silences all but the most determined dissidents. If the regime is structurally shaky\u2014for example, if it\u2019s under foreign threat, does not have control of the security services, or faces serious economic problems\u2014repression may backfire, even in the short term. In the long term, a figure like Navalny will be remembered as a martyr and inspiration by opposition movements.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_593432\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-593432\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-593432\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-alexei-navalny-flickr-duncan-cumming-51270118761_9dd4c51dde_o.jpg\" alt=\"Street art featuring a black and white rendering of Alexei Navalny in front of a Russian flag and with the words &quot;Russian Revolutionary&quot; underneath.\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-alexei-navalny-flickr-duncan-cumming-51270118761_9dd4c51dde_o.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-alexei-navalny-flickr-duncan-cumming-51270118761_9dd4c51dde_o-420x630.jpg 420w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/inline-alexei-navalny-flickr-duncan-cumming-51270118761_9dd4c51dde_o-768x1152.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-593432\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alexei Navalny\u2019s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, is already emerging as an important focal point of opposition against Putin. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/duncan\/51270118761\/in\/photolist-2m7yL5R-2jDfvsW-fNCEbW-fch3iL-2jDbZXm-24KZxYR-GCfNiW-fchSSX-fcx9pE-fch51h-2jDbZZA-2jDbZXG-2jDc11x-2jDbZYP-24Gefry-2jDgie6-23oV1kr-23oV56n-23FcJzh-fchSzk-fchRLa-23FcQgY-fcx8RJ-24GeiTJ-GCfG8E-GCfUWf-24KZzwF-24KZz2H-2oB34wR-GCfPrh-24GehV1-24GefPh-24Geoxd-24Gekhf-23FcLth-23FcJ9N-23FcMGQ-F6Wfvv-fNCEcU-23oV2NM-23FcQDw-23oV3ye-F6WniZ-24GenZE-23FcJhU-GCfLHb-GCfJvW-F6WpKH-24Geo5E-23FcRc5\">Flickr photo<\/a> \/ Duncan Cumming)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That said, it\u2019s important to stress here that \u201copposition\u201d doesn\u2019t necessarily mean \u201csupporting democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stone:<\/strong> In 2020, Putin attempted to assassinate Navalny with the exotic nerve agent Novichok. When Navalny survived the poison and voluntarily returned to Russia, the regime tried to discredit him, then jailed him, progressively worsening the conditions under which he was held. In December of last year, they moved him to a penal colony in the Arctic, and finally caused, or allowed, him to die.<\/p>\n<p>The question is why Putin allowed Navalny to live for so long in captivity when he was so ready to assassinate anyone else who opposed him. I think the most likely reason is that Navalny was an imperfect opposition leader who would be much more potent as a martyr. His act of returning to Russia was self-sacrificial, and Russia is a country full of Orthodox Christians who believe in the power of sacrificial love. A majority of Russians probably wouldn\u2019t have voted for Navalny, even in a fair election, but by killing him the regime has granted him credibility and discredited its own moral claims. I think this will galvanize Putin\u2019s opposition. Already Alexei\u2019s wife, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/02\/16\/navalny-family-yulia-wife-children\/\">Yulia Navalnaya<\/a>, is emerging as an important focal point of that opposition.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 id=\"experts\">Meet your experts<\/h3>\n<figure id=\"attachment_280752\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-280752\" style=\"width: 250px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-280752\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Matt_Lenoe.jpg\" alt=\"portrait of Matt Lenoe.\" width=\"250\" height=\"376\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-280752\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Matt Lenoe (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Historian <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/his\/people\/faculty\/lenoe_matthew\/index.html\">Matthew Lenoe<\/a> is an expert on Stalinist culture and politics, Russian and Soviet history, and the history of mass media. He is the author of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674013193\"><em>Closer to the Masses: Stalinist Culture, Social Revolution, and Soviet Newspapers<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(Harvard University Press, 2004) and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/yalebooks.yale.edu\/book\/9780300112368\/kirov-murder-and-soviet-history\"><em>The Kirov Murder and Soviet History<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(Yale University Press, 2010). Lenoe is currently finishing his third book, tentatively titled\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/go.gale.com\/ps\/i.do?id=GALE%7CA681652399&amp;sid=googleScholar&amp;v=2.1&amp;it=r&amp;linkaccess=abs&amp;issn=1531023X&amp;p=AONE&amp;sw=w&amp;userGroupName=nysl_oweb&amp;isGeoAuthType=true\"><em>Emotions, Experience, and Apocalypse in the Red Army, 1941\u20131942<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr style=\"width: 50%;\" \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_550862\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-550862\" style=\"width: 250px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-550862\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Randall-Stone.jpg\" alt=\"Headshot of Randall Stone.\" width=\"250\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Randall-Stone.jpg 821w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Randall-Stone-420x630.jpg 420w, https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Randall-Stone-768x1152.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-550862\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Randall Stone (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Political scientist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/people\/view.php?fid=29\">Randall Stone<\/a>, the director of the University of Rochester\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sas.rochester.edu\/psc\/CPCES\/\">Skalny Center for Polish and Central European Studies<\/a>, is an expert on international relations and has written extensively on Russia and Eastern and Central Europe. He is the author of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/controlling-institutions\/AB18F080C5212E9D145223144E286EA5\"><em>Controlling Institutions: International Organizations and the Global Economy<\/em><\/a> (Cambridge University Press, 2011),\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691095295\/lending-credibility\"><em>Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition<\/em><\/a> (Princeton University Press, 2002), and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691095981\/satellites-and-commissars\"><em>Satellites and Commissars: Strategy and Conflict in the Politics of Soviet-Bloc Trade<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(Princeton University Press, 1996).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rochester experts discuss Putin\u2019s intense fear of critics, the history of Russian and Soviet opposition movements, and what\u2019s next for Russia\u2019s dissidents.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":942,"featured_media":593402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456],"tags":[21422,21462,19242,24702,24692,16072],"class_list":["post-593362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society-culture","tag-department-of-history","tag-department-of-political-science","tag-global-engagement","tag-matthew-lenoe","tag-randall-stone","tag-school-of-arts-and-sciences"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why did Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny have to die?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the wake of Alexei Navalny&#039;s death, Rochester experts discuss the history and impact of Russian and Soviet opposition movements.\" \/>\n<meta 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