{"id":625262,"date":"2024-10-30T11:05:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T15:05:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/?p=625262"},"modified":"2025-05-30T10:34:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T14:34:14","slug":"what-is-voter-turnout-voting-behavior-625262","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/what-is-voter-turnout-voting-behavior-625262\/","title":{"rendered":"What every American needs to know about voter turnout"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rochester political scientists explain why people do and don\u2019t exercise their right to vote\u2014and the implications of that choice for democracy.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

It\u2019s election season, when candidate lawn signs sprout in yards and political messaging seeps into news feeds. With early voting underway in a contentious presidential race, many Americans are preparing to visit their polling place to cast their ballot (and score their \u201cI Voted\u201d sticker). Some will party (or not) like it\u2019s 1907, if one can trust the Election Night<\/a><\/em>\u00a0in the Memorial Art Gallery<\/a> at the University of Rochester<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\""Election
FIGHT FOR YOUR RIGHT (TO PARTY):<\/strong> Election Night<\/em> by John Sloan (1871\u20131951) captures the excitement\u2014social, political, technological, and even artistic\u2014of voting and the election on November 6, 1907, in New York City. (Collection of the Memorial Art Gallery of the University of Rochester)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yet for other voters, Election Day is just another Tuesday.<\/p>\n

What does voter turnout mean?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Technically, \u201cvoter turnout is the number of people who cast ballots in any given election,\u201d says Mayya Komisarchik<\/a>, an assistant professor of political science<\/a> at the University of Rochester<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the United States, the voting-eligible population comprises citizens of the right age, who are not convicted of a felony\u2014though this depends on state law\u2014and not mentally incapacitated. \u201cBut it\u2019s hard to get that granular with numbers, so the voter turnout rate <\/em>is typically calculated as the number of ballots cast divided by the voting-age population,\u201d she says. \u201cIf high turnout is the harbinger of a healthy democracy, we want a high percentage of voter turnout.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since 1980, voter turnout for US presidential elections has fluctuated between 50 to 65 percent<\/a> of eligible voters\u2014with the exception of 2020, when it reached a record high of 67 percent. (Midterm elections draw significantly fewer voters.)<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>If high turnout is the harbinger of a healthy democracy, we want a high percentage of voter turnout.\u201d<\/div>\n

\u201cTurnout in the US is not super-high relative to other democracies, like in Australia, where voting is compulsory with a fine for not participating,\u201d says Komisarchik.<\/p>\n

Even without a slap on the wrist, why aren\u2019t more US citizens voting?<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven that we\u2019re talking about 51 different electoral systems (each state plus Washington DC) with multi-pronged processes, various restrictions, and lots of contestation, the voter turnout rate doesn\u2019t surprise me,\u201d says James Druckman<\/a>, the Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science. \u201cStates vary dramatically in terms of their registration laws, early voting policies, access to polls, even when absentee ballots are counted.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Close-up
EDUCATED ELECTORATE:<\/strong> On National Voter Registration Day in September, students and staff from the University\u2019s Center for Community Engagement and the Committee for Political Engagement offer information and resources about registering to vote. (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Scheduling is also a factor: In some places, local elections are timed to coincide with midterm or presidential ones, while in other places they are staggered in different years.<\/p>\n

Add to this tangle the country\u2019s history of constricted ballot access and voter suppression, through legal means and otherwise: literacy tests with subjective scoring, character witnesses (also subjective), and recent challenges<\/a> to the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965. The finer points of \u201celectioneering<\/a>\u201d can even penalize distributing water at a polling line.<\/p>\n

In the lead-up to Election Day, here are several key points about voter turnout and why it\u2019s important.<\/p>\n

Voter \u201cdecline\u201d is often really voter disenfranchisement.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Extending the franchise\u2014or giving more people the right to vote\u2014is one way to influence voter turnout.<\/p>\n

In 1870, the 15th Amendment<\/a> to the US Constitution acknowledged the right of formerly enslaved African American men to vote. Fifty years later, in 1920, the 19th Amendment<\/a> was ratified, legally guaranteeing American women the right to vote, a longstanding goal of the women\u2019s suffrage movement<\/a>. (Susan B. Anthony<\/a> was a key player in the movement. On November 5, 1872\u2014well before the 19th Amendment\u2019s ratification\u2014Anthony marched to the polls near her home in Rochester, New York, demanding to vote in the presidential election. She cast her vote, but was subsequently arrested, charged, and indicted.)<\/p>\n

\""Votes
FAILURE IS IMPOSSIBLE:<\/strong> A \u201cVotes for Women\u201d suffrage banner from the Women\u2019s Rights Ephemera Collection at the University of Rochester\u2019s Department of Rare Books, Special Collections, and Preservation. (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Conversely, disenfranchising people can also affect voter turnout.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause we often divide voters by the entire voting-age population, voter turnout appeared to decline through the 1970s, 80s, and 90s,\u201d says Druckman. \u201cIn reality, this is explained by the growing disenfranchisement rate of felons.\u201d<\/p>\n

Only in Maine, Vermont, and Washington, DC, do people convicted of a felony never lose their right to vote. In other states, convicted felons are ineligible to vote either while incarcerated, for a period of time after release, or indefinitely.<\/p>\n

When it comes to the calculus of voting, participation trumps \u201cpivotality.\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In US elections, some states are reliably \u201cblue\u201d or \u201cred\u201d\u2014that is, the results of the state elections tend to be more Democratic or Republican, respectively. By contrast, \u201cpurple\u201d or \u201cswing\u201d states are those where either the Democratic or Republican candidates could win a statewide election. In these so-called battleground states, the difference between winning and losing can come down to a few thousand\u2014or even hundred\u2014votes.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>Rational choice theory is an umbrella term for considering instrumental motivations that voters might have. In other words, what compels a person to vote?\u201d<\/div>\n

Why, then, would anyone in a blue or red state bother to cast a ballot, knowing their vote isn\u2019t pivotal to the election results? Is the act of voting an irrational one if you know your vote isn\u2019t pivotal?<\/p>\n

Enter the rational choice theory, a scientific model of political behavior that assumes people make decisions based on their calculations of costs and benefits. William Riker, an American political scientist at the University of Rochester from 1962 to 1993, is considered the founder of rational choice theory. He used economic and game-theoretic approaches to develop mathematical models of politics, including the Riker-Ordeshook theory of the calculus of voting<\/a>. In doing so, he founded an entirely new subfield of political science in the 1960s\u2014one that continues to influence the discipline today.<\/p>\n

\"Black
FIRST IN THE FIELD:<\/strong> American political scientist and Rochester faculty member William Riker applied economic and game-theoretic approaches to develop mathematical models of politics\u2014founding an entirely new subfield of political science. (University of Rochester photo \/ Department of Rare Books, Special Collections, and Preservation)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cRational choice theory is an umbrella term for considering instrumental motivations that voters might have. In other words, what compels a person to vote?\u201d explains Scott Tyson<\/a>, an associate professor of political science at Rochester.<\/p>\n

Those motivations could vary anywhere from getting personal satisfaction from participating in the democratic process to thinking your vote will make the difference in a particular election. The latter \u201cis a narrower definition of instrumentality,\u201d says Tyson. \u201cWhat is the likelihood that I am pivotal in this election? If my vote is pivotal for Candidate A, that means half of all voters will vote for Candidate B. And that means that public opinion is more divided than I thought. So, when my vote \u2018matters\u2019 the most, my knowledge that it\u2019s \u2018right\u2019 may be the least secure.\u201d<\/p>\n

Voting behavior has evolved from private decision to team sport.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201cMore recently, voting has taken on an event-based, participatory aspect,\u201d says Tyson. There\u2019s a difference between attending a concert or game in person versus streaming it on YouTube. \u201cIt\u2019s just not the same,\u201d he says. Likewise with voting today.<\/p>\n

The aforementioned Riker-Ordeshook model of political science\u2014also called the paradox of voting\u2014ascribes most of the benefit of voting to the act itself, rather than to the outcome of the election. Even when a voter knows they won\u2019t change the outcome, they still get some value from the act\u2014whether that\u2019s securing the coveted \u201cI Voted\u201d sticker or posting a selfie on social media (after clearing the electioneering zone, of course).<\/p>\n

According to Tyson, today\u2019s political advertisements reinforce the notion of voting behavior as a team sport or stadium concert, rather than reflective decision-making. \u201cVery few ads seem designed to persuade independent voters to cast their vote one way or another,\u201d he says. \u201cInstead, they seem to ask: \u2018Are you going to turn out for your candidate on Election Day? Will we see you in the arena?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

From drizzle to deluge, the weather forecast matters for voter turnout.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201cOn a rainy and cold day, people are less likely to stand outside the polling place in long lines,\u201d says Komisarchik. And when handing out water and snacks is perceived as risky, people may not wait outside on sweltering Tuesdays, either.<\/p>\n

Extreme weather events can impact voting behavior even more profoundly. \u201cSometimes there are natural disasters right around Election Day, like tornadoes, where officials need to consolidate voting places as shelters,\u201d says Komisarchik. For example, during the Super Tuesday Democratic Party presidential primaries in 2020, severe tornadoes<\/a> in Nashville, Tennessee, forced the closing and consolidating of polling stations, leaving voters and election officials scrambling to navigate both dangerous conditions and thorny logistics.<\/p>\n

\"\"
SUPER TUESDAY TORNADO:<\/strong> Hours before polls were set to open for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, a tornado tore through central Tennessee, forcing the unexpected closure and consolidation of polling stations across the city of Nashville and surrounding area. (Getty Images \/ Brett Carlsen)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Younger people tend to vote less (sorry, Bernie).<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201cVoting habituates,\u201d says Druckman. \u201cThe key determinant of voting in any given election is whether you have voted before.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, which voters reliably show up to exercise their civic duty?<\/p>\n

\u201cIn general, the people who are most likely to turn out\u2014and turn out in most elections, from presidential to midterms to primaries to local races\u2014are college-educated suburban homeowners,\u201d says Komisarchik. \u201cThey are stakeholders, who have lived somewhere for a long time and put down roots.\u201d<\/p>\n

Turnout rates also increase along with voters\u2019 level of education.<\/a><\/p>\n

Younger voters between ages 18 and 29, conversely, tend to vote less. \u201cThis is the bane of Bernie Sanders\u2019 campaign. If your life is in flux without a fixed address, you\u2019re less likely to vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

People over the age of 45 are the highest-propensity voter, Komisarchik says. And despite efforts to enforce (and protect) the Voting Rights Act, \u201cracial gaps do persist. By and large, it\u2019s still the case that white voters are most likely to turn out.\u201d Data shows that the most significant drop-off is for Hispanic voters<\/a>, specifically for midterm elections.<\/p>\n

\"Elderly
OLD HABITS?<\/strong> \u201cThe people who are most likely to turn out\u2014and turn out in most elections, from presidential to midterms to primaries to local races\u2014are college-educated suburban homeowners,\u201d says Rochester political scientist Mayya Komisarchik. (University of Rochester photo \/ J. Adam Fenster)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Low voter turnout used to benefit Republicans. Now it favors Democrats. <\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201cPolitical scientists used to think that low-turnout\u00a0elections were marginally better for the Republican party,\u201d says Komisarchik. \u201cHistorically, it was the case that all college-educated homeowner suburban votes were Republican. But in the Trump years, there has been a realignment and those places now tend to go Democrat.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the largest advertising investments<\/a> late in Trump\u2019s campaign, she notes, has been anti-transgender attack ads. Komisarchik says, \u201cThat does not look like an effort to win back suburban\u00a0voters who value affordable childcare or accessible health care.\u201d<\/p>\n

This realignment will likely persist for a while, she says, with political, societal, and historical implications still playing out in real-time.<\/p>\n

Same-day registration boosts voter turnout.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Same-day registration allows voters to register and vote at the same time, usually on Election Day itself. This voting option, currently available in 23 states and Washington, DC, is the strategy that \u201cconsistently has the most positive impact, from what I\u2019ve seen,\u201d says Komisarchik.<\/p>\n

For states without this option, campaigns should try the opposite tactic. According to Komisarchik, research on voter turnout<\/a> suggests that one way to reduce the \u201cmental load\u201d for voters is to encourage them to make a written plan in advance.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis includes when they will vote, the confirmed location of their polling place, and how they will get to the polls. Providing them with rides, registration information, and other means to reduce their \u2018mental load\u2019 will also help,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

\"Black
WRITE TO VOTE:<\/strong> \u201cIn a world of eroding trust and mounting disinformation, paper ballots actually give us security,\u201d says Komisarchik. (Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Without a paper trail, trust in elections and democracy suffers.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If voting migrated online for convenience, would turnout improve? Maybe\u2014but don\u2019t count on seeing a ballot box icon next to the Amazon button on your home screen.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe tricky thing about voting is that if we removed all logistics and other \u2018costs,\u2019 it would be easier,\u201d Komisarchik allows. \u201cPeople could vote from the convenience of their homes. However, we also need elections to be secure, auditable, and verifiable\u2014with a \u2018paper trail.\u2019 Cybersecurity experts<\/a> tell us that the most secure way to vote is on paper.\u201d<\/p>\n

The tangible evidence of a paper trail makes it more difficult for a foreign power or bad actors to interfere, she explains, while simplifying post-election audits. \u201cThey would have to break into polling stations and steal the physical ballots, as opposed to remotely hacking a server. In a world of eroding trust and mounting disinformation, paper ballots actually give us security.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Meet your experts<\/strong><\/h3>\n

James Druckman<\/strong>
\n\"CircleMartin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science<\/em><\/h4>\n

An expert in political behavior and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Druckman studies public opinion formation, political polarization, political and scientific communication, political psychology, and experimental and survey methods. He has published approximately 200 articles and book chapters. His latest coauthored book, Partisan Hostility and American Democracy: Explaining Political Divisions and When They Matter<\/em> (University of Chicago), was published in 2024.<\/p>\n